Unpublished draft

Tomasetti–Vogelstein model

The Tomasetti–Vogelstein model explains differences in cancer risk between tissues by the lifetime number of stem-cell divisions each tissue undergoes: the more replications a tissue’s stem cells perform, the more opportunities random replication errors have to produce a driver mutation.

The correlation

Tomasetti and Vogelstein plotted lifetime cancer incidence for 31 tissue types against the estimated cumulative number of stem-cell divisions in each, and found that the two correlate strongly (r = 0.81 in the 2015 “bad luck” paper). Cancers of the colon, with its constantly renewed epithelium, sit at the high-division end; bone and brain cancers sit at the low